tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Phoenix via Kansas City: arrives on time 28%

  1. 16:05 MDW → 17:30 MCI
    WN 2812 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 76% on time, 4.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Kansas City (MCI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 MCI → 19:15 PHX
    WN 2580 · Southwest · 2h 45m · 41% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (4.7% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (41%).
Total trip5h 10mMDW 16:05 to PHX 19:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.