tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Washington via Kansas City: arrives on time 31%

  1. 16:05 MDW → 17:30 MCI
    WN 2812 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 76% on time, 4.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Kansas City (MCI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 MCI → 21:55 DCA
    WN 458 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (4.7% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip4h 50mMDW 16:05 to DCA 21:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.