tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Baltimore via Minneapolis: arrives on time 33%

  1. 15:30 MDW → 17:00 MSP
    WN 2832 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 60% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 MSP → 21:25 BWI
    WN 2963 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 57% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip4h 55mMDW 15:30 to BWI 21:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.