tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Reno via Phoenix: arrives on time 75%

  1. 05:20 MDW → 06:55 PHX
    WN 2858 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:50 PHX → 09:40 RNO
    WN 146 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip6h 20mMDW 05:20 to RNO 09:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.