tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Oakland via Phoenix: arrives on time 66%

  1. 05:20 MDW → 06:55 PHX
    WN 2858 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:45 PHX → 09:45 OAK
    WN 3303 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 94% on time, 3.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time66%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (3.9% are) and within 15 minutes (94%).
Total trip6h 25mMDW 05:20 to OAK 09:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.