tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Dallas via Phoenix: arrives on time 10%

  1. 16:35 MDW → 18:15 PHX
    WN 2861 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:05 PHX → 23:30 DAL
    WN 193 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 40% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection27%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 73% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (27%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (40%).
Total trip6h 55mMDW 16:35 to DAL 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.