tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Indianapolis via Phoenix: arrives on time 15%

  1. 16:35 MDW → 18:15 PHX
    WN 2861 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:15 PHX → 01:40 IND +1 day
    WN 3231 · Southwest · 3h 25m · 33% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (33%).
Total trip8h 05mMDW 16:35 to IND 01:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.