tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Santa Ana via Phoenix: arrives on time 70%

  1. 16:35 MDW → 18:15 PHX
    WN 2861 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 55m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:10 PHX → 22:25 SNA
    WN 4107 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 130 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 55m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip7h 50mMDW 16:35 to SNA 22:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.