tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Oakland via Phoenix: arrives on time 34%

  1. 18:35 MDW → 20:15 PHX
    WN 2862 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 43% on time, 6.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:22 PHX → 23:15 OAK
    WN 3306 · Southwest · 1h 52m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (6.0% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 39mMDW 18:35 to OAK 23:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.