tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Antonio via Phoenix: arrives on time 15%

  1. 18:35 MDW → 20:15 PHX
    WN 2862 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 43% on time, 6.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:05 PHX → 01:15 SAT +1 day
    WN 3328 · Southwest · 2h 12m · 48% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection33%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 67% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (6.0% are) × connection made (33%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip6h 42mMDW 18:35 to SAT 01:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.