tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Salt Lake City via Phoenix: arrives on time 35%

  1. 18:35 MDW → 20:15 PHX
    WN 2862 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 43% on time, 6.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 PHX → 00:10 SLC +1 day
    WN 4792 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (6.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip6h 30mMDW 18:35 to SLC 00:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.