tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Buffalo via Chicago: arrives on time 64%

  1. 08:00 TPA → 09:40 MDW
    WN 2869 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 20m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:00 MDW → 15:30 BUF
    WN 1655 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 155 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 20m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip7h 30mTPA 08:00 to BUF 15:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.