tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → Kansas City via Chicago: arrives on time 8%

  1. 17:15 MSY → 19:30 MDW
    WN 2875 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 17% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 MDW → 22:00 MCI
    WN 1482 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 48% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection17%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 83% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time8%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (17%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip4h 45mMSY 17:15 to MCI 22:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.