tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 11%

  1. 17:15 MSY → 19:30 MDW
    WN 2875 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 17% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 MDW → 22:15 PHX
    WN 2863 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 48% on time, 8.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind New Orleans). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection25%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 75% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time11%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (25%) × second flight not cancelled (8.0% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip7h 00mMSY 17:15 to PHX 22:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.