tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Orlando via Rochester: arrives on time 20%

  1. 13:20 MDW → 15:55 ROC
    WN 2877 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 59% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Rochester (ROC) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:45 ROC → 19:35 MCO
    WN 2877 · Southwest · 2h 50m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip5h 15mMDW 13:20 to MCO 19:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.