tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Rochester → Baltimore via Orlando: arrives on time 35%

  1. 16:45 ROC → 19:35 MCO
    WN 2877 · Southwest · 2h 50m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:45 MCO → 20:55 BWI
    WN 455 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 55% on time, 7.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (7.3% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip6h 25mROC 16:45 to BWI 20:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.