tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Chicago via Oakland: arrives on time 31%

  1. 20:25 SEA → 22:35 OAK
    WN 2890 · Southwest · 2h 12m · 34% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Oakland (OAK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:55 OAK → 06:00 MDW +1 day
    WN 3059 · Southwest · 4h 05m · 66% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip7h 35mSEA 20:25 to MDW 06:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.