tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Phoenix via Denver: arrives on time 23%

  1. 17:15 AUS → 18:45 DEN
    WN 290 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:05 DEN → 21:00 PHX
    WN 4447 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 33% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (33%).
Total trip5h 45mAUS 17:15 to PHX 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.