tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Orlando via St Louis: arrives on time 34%

  1. 18:00 MDW → 19:10 STL
    WN 2904 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 70% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 STL → 23:30 MCO
    WN 3950 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 62% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip4h 30mMDW 18:00 to MCO 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.