tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Manchester → Philadelphia via Orlando: arrives on time 35%

  1. 12:30 MHT → 15:35 MCO
    WN 2919 · Southwest · 3h 05m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 02m layover in Orlando (MCO) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 17:37 MCO → 20:22 PHL
    AA 2109 · American · 2h 45m · 46% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection79%The first flight arrived more than 32 minutes late on 21% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 02m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (79%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip7h 52mMHT 12:30 to PHL 20:22, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.