tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Chicago via Baltimore: arrives on time 41%

  1. 15:05 MIA → 17:45 BWI
    WN 2924 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 58% on time, 4.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:00 BWI → 20:05 MDW
    WN 1005 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 73% on time, 11.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (4.9% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (11.5% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip6h 00mMIA 15:05 to MDW 20:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.