tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Austin via Chicago: arrives on time 28%

  1. 15:15 MIA → 17:25 MDW
    WN 2930 · Southwest · 3h 10m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:20 MDW → 20:55 AUS
    WN 3171 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Miami). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip6h 40mMIA 15:15 to AUS 20:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.