tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Sacramento via Ontario: arrives on time 19%

  1. 18:40 DEN → 20:00 ONT
    WN 2949 · Southwest · 2h 20m · 40% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Ontario (ONT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:50 ONT → 22:12 SMF
    WN 208 · Southwest · 1h 22m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 1 h behind Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection28%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 72% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (28%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip4h 32mDEN 18:40 to SMF 22:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.