tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Milwaukee → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 43%

  1. 17:15 MKE → 18:05 MDW
    WN 2953 · Southwest · 50m · 48% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 30m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 MDW → 22:15 PHX
    WN 2863 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 48% on time, 8.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 105 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 30m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (8.0% are) and within 15 minutes (48%).
Total trip7h 00mMKE 17:15 to PHX 22:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.