tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Milwaukee → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 13%

  1. 17:15 MKE → 18:05 MDW
    WN 2953 · Southwest · 50m · 48% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 MDW → 21:50 PHL
    WN 4263 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 51% on time, 4.9% cancelled

Total trip 3h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Milwaukee). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection28%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 72% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (28%) × second flight not cancelled (4.9% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip3h 40mMKE 17:15 to PHL 21:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.