tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → New York via Nashville: arrives on time 45%

  1. 07:15 MDW → 08:40 BNA
    WN 2959 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 70% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:45 BNA → 13:05 LGA
    WN 1966 · Southwest · 2h 20m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip4h 50mMDW 07:15 to LGA 13:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.