tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Tulsa via Dallas: arrives on time 25%

  1. 18:25 MDW → 20:40 DAL
    WN 2961 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 58% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Dallas (DAL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:55 DAL → 23:00 TUL
    WN 1419 · Southwest · 1h 05m · 36% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (36%).
Total trip4h 35mMDW 18:25 to TUL 23:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.