tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Phoenix via Nashville: arrives on time 15%

  1. 16:00 MSP → 18:00 BNA
    WN 2962 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 32% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:15 BNA → 20:50 PHX
    WN 642 · Southwest · 3h 35m · 29% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip6h 50mMSP 16:00 to PHX 20:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.