tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Louisville via Baltimore: arrives on time 31%

  1. 18:00 MSP → 21:25 BWI
    WN 2963 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 57% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:25 BWI → 00:30 SDF +1 day
    WN 156 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 61% on time, 10.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (10.5% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip5h 10mMSP 18:00 to SDF 00:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.