tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Richmond via Baltimore: arrives on time 25%

  1. 18:00 MSP → 21:25 BWI
    WN 2963 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 57% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 BWI → 23:38 RIC
    WN 2353 · Southwest · 58m · 37% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (37%).
Total trip4h 38mMSP 18:00 to RIC 23:38, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.