tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Phoenix via Baltimore: arrives on time 53%

  1. 13:20 RDU → 14:35 BWI
    WN 297 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:45 BWI → 17:35 PHX
    WN 1050 · Southwest · 4h 50m · 61% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip7h 15mRDU 13:20 to PHX 17:35, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.