tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Nashville via Chicago: arrives on time 15%

  1. 16:15 MSP → 17:45 MDW
    WN 2971 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 38% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:40 MDW → 20:10 BNA
    WN 1073 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 50% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection32%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 68% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (32%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip3h 55mMSP 16:15 to BNA 20:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.