tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Baltimore via Chicago: arrives on time 41%

  1. 16:15 MSP → 17:45 MDW
    WN 2971 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 38% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:00 MDW → 21:55 BWI
    WN 2745 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 66% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip4h 40mMSP 16:15 to BWI 21:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.