tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Jacksonville via Chicago: arrives on time 41%

  1. 16:15 MSP → 17:45 MDW
    WN 2971 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 38% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 35m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:20 MDW → 22:35 JAX
    WN 2792 · Southwest · 2h 20m · 51% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 50 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 35m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip5h 25mMSP 16:15 to JAX 22:35, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.