tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 11%

  1. 16:15 MSP → 17:45 MDW
    WN 2971 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 38% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:35 MDW → 20:15 PHX
    WN 2862 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 43% on time, 6.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection28%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 72% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time11%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (28%) × second flight not cancelled (6.0% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip6h 00mMSP 16:15 to PHX 20:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.