tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Tampa via Chicago: arrives on time 51%

  1. 16:15 MSP → 17:45 MDW
    WN 2971 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 38% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 25m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 MDW → 23:45 TPA
    WN 2910 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 100 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 25m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip6h 30mMSP 16:15 to TPA 23:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.