tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Norfolk via Chicago: arrives on time 23%

  1. 16:15 MSP → 17:45 MDW
    WN 2971 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 38% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:00 MDW → 22:00 ORF
    WN 4089 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 36% on time, 4.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (4.9% are) and within 15 minutes (36%).
Total trip4h 45mMSP 16:15 to ORF 22:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.