tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 23%

  1. 16:15 MSP → 17:45 MDW
    WN 2971 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 38% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 00m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 MDW → 22:55 LGA
    WN 4120 · Southwest · 2h 12m · 27% on time, 8.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 75 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 00m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (8.8% are) and within 15 minutes (27%).
Total trip5h 42mMSP 16:15 to LGA 22:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.