tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Orlando via St Louis: arrives on time 28%

  1. 17:40 MSP → 19:10 STL
    WN 2974 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 STL → 23:30 MCO
    WN 3950 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 62% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip4h 50mMSP 17:40 to MCO 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.