tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → Detroit via Nashville: arrives on time 40%

  1. 07:45 MSY → 09:20 BNA
    WN 2981 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:10 BNA → 12:45 DTW
    WN 507 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 57% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip4h 00mMSY 07:45 to DTW 12:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.