tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → Detroit via Nashville: arrives on time 7%

  1. 15:00 MSY → 16:35 BNA
    WN 2983 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 35% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:22 BNA → 20:02 DTW
    WN 4815 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection13%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 87% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time7%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (13%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip4h 02mMSY 15:00 to DTW 20:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.