tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → Las Vegas via Sacramento: arrives on time 49%

  1. 10:00 PDX → 11:25 SMF
    WN 300 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:20 SMF → 13:50 LAS
    WN 4278 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip3h 50mPDX 10:00 to LAS 13:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.