tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Portland → St Louis via Sacramento: arrives on time 48%

  1. 10:00 PDX → 11:25 SMF
    WN 300 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:20 SMF → 18:00 STL
    WN 920 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Portland). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip6h 00mPDX 10:00 to STL 18:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.