tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → Las Vegas via Los Angeles: arrives on time 8%

  1. 15:30 MSY → 17:30 LAX
    WN 3004 · Southwest · 4h 00m · 36% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:20 LAX → 19:35 LAS
    WN 2404 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind New Orleans). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection17%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 83% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time8%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (17%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip6h 05mMSY 15:30 to LAS 19:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.