tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → Chicago via Los Angeles: arrives on time 6%

  1. 15:30 MSY → 17:30 LAX
    WN 3004 · Southwest · 4h 00m · 36% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:20 LAX → 00:20 MDW +1 day
    WN 4541 · Southwest · 3h 58m · 37% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection17%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 83% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time6%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (17%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (37%).
Total trip8h 48mMSY 15:30 to MDW 00:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.