tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New Orleans → St Louis via Tampa: arrives on time 21%

  1. 17:45 MSY → 20:20 TPA
    WN 3023 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 49% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Tampa (TPA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:10 TPA → 22:35 STL
    WN 4964 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection32%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 68% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (32%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip4h 55mMSY 17:45 to STL 22:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.