tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Phoenix via Austin: arrives on time 56%

  1. 05:30 OAK → 10:55 AUS
    WN 3034 · Southwest · 3h 25m · 85% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Austin (AUS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:45 AUS → 12:05 PHX
    WN 375 · Southwest · 2h 20m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip6h 35mOAK 05:30 to PHX 12:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.