tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → Denver via Kansas City: arrives on time 30%

  1. 12:40 BWI → 14:15 MCI
    WN 3038 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 58% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Kansas City (MCI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:05 MCI → 15:55 DEN
    WN 1563 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip5h 15mBWI 12:40 to DEN 15:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.