tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Washington via Las Vegas: arrives on time 54%

  1. 06:40 PHX → 07:50 LAS
    WN 3039 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 95% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:10 LAS → 16:45 DCA
    WN 1241 · Southwest · 4h 35m · 55% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip7h 05mPHX 06:40 to DCA 16:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.