tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Baltimore via Chicago: arrives on time 59%

  1. 23:55 OAK → 06:00 MDW
    WN 3059 · Southwest · 4h 05m · 66% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:00 MDW → 09:45 BWI +1 day
    WN 2742 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 91% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip6h 50mOAK 23:55 to BWI 09:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.